tran vs spy

Tran in blue

2010 analog - Election bottom?

Here's the 2010 analog I've been looking at since Mid-May.
Weekly chart. My thinking was that the Oct 2011 was a new bottom. After that, was a melt up that no one expected. This melt up looked similar to June 09 to Jan 10 period. So the dunce cap of 2010 was copied over to 2012. Has matched fairly close so far. Analogs are never perfect. Will see in the next 15 days if the analog holds up. Will put a few shorts on in the coming days, but will wait for weakness before adding. Don't fight the Fed!?

    Weekly

    Daily - expected bottom 122/123, just in time for election

Wind speed technical analysis - Does it work?

Noticed a head and shoulders pattern developing at around 11am. Expected wind speed to decrease to 41mph where it was at around 6 am where the pattern started.  Unfortunately I was wrong as the wind continues its upward move in a channel pattern. Hopefully wind speed fails at the bottom channel line soon or I might not have a wind turbine to work on.

1_17_12

1_12_12

Wedged between long bottom support trendline and 1300 resistance

1_9_12

Hourly Chart, price basing for a quick move to 1300. If it can break 1300 with some cushion, come back down for a retest, a move back up expect my bias to be long. But am expecting a bull trap.

Looks like a break either way is imminent. 1300 or 1230/1250

1_5_12

    Channel holds as expected. Best guess, SPX to 1295-1310 before reversal.